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Index 19 oktober 2021

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Forecast 2021 Scoreoverzicht

Forecast 2021 Scoreoverzicht

Het Forecast 2022 prepublicatie-seizoen is 17 augustus bij MarketTiming.nl van start gegaan, daarom delen wij de "Scorecard" met u van Forecast 2021 zoals die er dit jaar tot nu toe uitziet. Forecast 2021 was misschien wel de meest accurate van alle Forecast Boeken die tot nu toe (40 jaar) zijn geschreven. Ons onderzoek, en dat van onze MMTA-studenten, blijft bijdragen aan de grote mate van kennis over de studie van marktcycli (cyclusanalyse) en hun correlatie met planetaire cycli (planetaire samenhang).

 

FORECAST 2021 (SCOREKAART PER 21 JULI 2021)

Elk jaar worden onze prognoses beter en beter. Hoewel 2021 nog niet voorbij is, hebben verschillende prognoses uit het boek voor 2021 zich al ontvouwd. Hieronder vindt u een aantal van deze prognoses per 21 juli. Deze vooruitzichten werden geschreven in oktober-november 2020, en gepubliceerd in december 2020, lang voor 2021 van start ging. We zetten ze hieronder in het Engels voor u op een rijtje.

 

ECONOMIC AND MARKET FORECASTS FOR 2021 (made prior to December 1, 2020) 

 

  • The U.S. Stock Market and DJIA: “… There are reasons to support a continuation of the bull market off the lows of March 2020… The next sign of potential trouble for the bull market in the U.S. stock market will happen if and when the DJIA takes out support at 25,000–26,000. Until then, our advice for investors is to stay with bullish strategies. That is, buy corrective declines (even if sharp) into the 50-week and 16.5-month cycle lows due in 2021. But as long as the DJIA does not fall below 25,000–26,000, it is probably a buying opportunity.” The DJIA never traded that low. Instead, it continued to rally and as of this writing, it has made a new all-time high above 35,000 as of May 10 and July 16. The S&P and NASDAQ have continued making new all-time highs in July as well.
  • T-Notes and Interest Rates: “Between the Saturn–Pluto conjunction, the Jupiter–Pluto conjunction, the U.S. Pluto return in 2021 –2023, and the Jupiter –Uranus and Saturn –Uranus squares in 2021, the stars suggest that this multi-decade bull market is closer to its end than to its beginning. In the likely event that the March 2020 high at 140/24 was the long-term cycle crest, we could anticipate T-Note prices to decline into the 125-132 range at the least in 2021… If the March 2020 high was the 3-year cycle crest, though, then we could expect a corrective decline to 129-132” The low of the year as of this update has been 130/25 on April 5.
  • Gold:“Gold is now in its second 31.33-month cycle phase. Its next trough is due April 2021 +/- 5 months… the price target is 1628 +/- 109…. The 31.33-month cycle, like all cycles, can also sub-divide further into a two– or three–phase pattern, consisting of two 16-month,.. it is next due to bottom in March 2021 +/- 2.5 months.“ The 31.33- and 16-month lows occurred March 8 at 1673.30.
  • U.S. Dollar: “It may be trying to form a 5.5-year cycle low due by early 2021. If so, the downside price targets are the same as given above: 87.25 +/- 3.91… The U.S. Dollar also appears to exhibit a 3.25-year cycle too. Measured from the low of February 2018, it is next due to bottom in May 2021 +/- 8 months.” The low so far has been 89.53 on January 6, 2021, the day of the insurrection on the U.S. Capital.
  • Euro “…The Euro is due for a 16.5-month cycle low, July–August 2021 +/- 3 months. However, these are only expected to be corrective declines, for the 5.5-year greater cycle in each is still pointed higher, indicating that in 2021, each currency will at some point likely exceed the highs of 2020. With the Euro, that means above 1.2011 and probably even 1.2550. In the Swiss Franc, that means above 1.1200, and possibly to the 1.1800 +/-.0200 level.” The Euro high so far has been 1.249 on January 6. The low so far has been 1.1702 on March 31. Although that could be the low, the time band is still in effect as this is being written and the Euro is testing that low again.
  • Dollar/Yen: “My bias is that any rallies this late in the 5.5-year cycle may be modest. A rally in a still-bearish 5.5-year cycle could see the Dollar/Yen back to 109.91 +/- 2.06.” The high as of this writing has been 111.63 on July 7, just two days before our critical reversal date given for July 9 in the book.
  • Swiss Franc: “The next 26-month cycle trough is due June–July 2021 +/- 5 months. If the high is already in at 1.1144, then the price target for the 26-month cycle low is 1.0480 +/- .-157. Traders and investors would be advised to look for buying opportunities in this range if offered in 2021, with a stop-loss on a close below .9814.” The Swiss Franc soared to 1.1410 on January 6, 2021, as the U.S. capital was stormed. It then fell to 1.0576 for the low so fa r on April 1. The time and price still worked pout even though the crest was higher than expected due to the explosive political situation in the U.S.
  • British Pound: “The bullish 16-month cycle crest should manifest in January-July 2021, which would be tailed by the 16-month cycle bottom sometime March-November 2021… our first intermediate-term event is expected to be a 16-month cycle crest, forecasted to occur in the time frame January-July 2021, with a price target span of 1.3146-1.5335. The intermediate-term cycle crest should be followed by a 16-month cycle low, estimated to manifest sometime March-November 2021, at a decline of 4.42%-12.58%.” Spot on. The high was 142.35 on February 24, right in the center of the price range given. The Pound continues to decline to the low of the year as this is being written in late July. So far the decline has been 4.67%.
  • Crude Oil: “Of these cycles, the only one in which we anticipate a trough to occur in 2021 is the 17-month cycle, which would be due September 2021 +/- 3 months. With Jupiter and Neptune both going retrograde in Pisces within a week of each other, we like the idea of a 17-month crest occurring in June 2021 +/- 1 month. The target for this 17-month cycle crest largely depends on whether Crude Oil can effectively clear current resistance at 42.50–43.00. If it manages to do so, we could see prices rip as high as 70.00 +/- 5.00.” Another excellent hit as Crude Oil topped out at 76.98 on July 2.
  • Corn: “Corn prices likely formed an 18-year, 9-year, 6-year, and distorted 30-month cycle low in April 2020 at 309. Coupled with Uranus in Taurus and a pending Saturn-Uranus square, our analysis suggests that 2021 should be a very bullish year for grains.” Without a doubt. Corn soared to a high so far of 775 as of this writing.
  • Wheat: “The price objective for the top of the 42-month cycle is … 702.50+/-33.75 based on irregular wave progression. After that, it is 793.46+/-44.50.” So far the yearly high in Wheat is 771, and of this writing, is starting another big rally.
  • Soybeans: “Soybeans are likely not even through their first year in multiple long-term cycles, including the 16.5-year, 8-year, and 5.5-year cycles. As such, this grain is in the early stages of multiple long-term cycles, when markets are at their most bullish. In short, this means 2021 should prove to be a very bullish year for soybeans. The odds of this would increase greatly, especially if prices can close above 1175 on a monthly level…. However, with Uranus in Taurus, and especially with the incoming square from Saturn in 2021, prices could go even higher to test prices in the 1750 +/- 20 area.” Indeed, Soybeans took off too, with the highest price as of this writing being 1677 on May 12. 

 

EXAMPLES OF MUNDANE WORLD AND NATIONAL FORECASTS  

 

  • COVID-19: “This suggests a return to more “normalcy” within three months of February 2021 – after Neptune leaves its opposition to the Uranus/Pluto super charged degrees.” Also, “All of these studies indicate that by spring and summer 2021, businesses and social activities are opening up and there is likely a sigh of relief from the world’s collective by then.” In the U.S., the second wave of the pandemic peaked in February 2021. By late spring, business and social activities throughout much of the world opened up and began returning to normalcy. As this is being written, cases are starting to increase again , but each peak appears to be lower than the prior peak and then incidents of death have receded dramatically since February.
  • Travel, Leisure and Social Activity: “Travel for leisure and social or family activity will increase now that Jupiter is leaving Capricorn and separating from Saturn in 2021. Airlines will begin to come back after the Capricorn stellium and Grand Conjunctions of 2020.” Airlines are once again experiencing full capacity after struggling in 2020 through the first 3-4 months of 2021. Now they are filled as people want to travel again.
  • Sports Return: Jupiter and Mars rule sports. Aquarius rules large gatherings of people. After both Saturn (restrictions related to the size of group gatherings) and Jupiter (fun, sports, social activities) leave Capricorn (restrictions and bans), stadiums are likely to fill up again for sporting events. That for sure is happening now, and especially since March-April 2021.
  • Protests: Peaceful versus Dangerous and Life-Threatening: “… the dangers of Saturn in Aquarius (the sign is ruled by both Saturn and Uranus) (include) civil unrest, disobedience, protests turning deadly and into destruction of property, and even revolutionary movements against authoritarian leadership.” Major protests have been erupting in 2021, starting with the storming of U.S. Capital in January in which people were killed. Now we have Hamas firing rockets on Israel and Israel retaliating and again, scores of people are killed. Also, large riots and protests have exploded in Russia over the handling of dissident Alexei Nalvany, in Australia and UK (violence against women), Bolivia, Brazil, Columbia, Hong Kong, Myanmar, Netherlands, Pakistan, Spain, Turkey, and Yemen, to name a few. These have been over demands for freedom and democracy as well as women’s rights and against restrictions imposed due to COVID-19, and also tax revolts.
  • Bitcoin: The possibility of a boom/bust pattern in Bitcoin related to Uranus in Taurus is present. Our observation is a market will appreciate 5–8 times (or more) above its low preceding the “boom” part of a boom/bust cycle, and sometimes much more… The transit of Uranus in Taurus further supports the idea of a rising Bitcoin. Not only is that combination suggestive of a boom/bust cycle for cryptos like Bitcoin, but because it will trine the natal Sun of the Bitcoin chart, it identifies a period when it may be most prone to explosive rallies… These studies show the potentiality of Bitcoin soaring in price next year. Yet, they also indicate the vulnerability of loss through activities of intruders who are not abiding by the rules. They are breaking the law (Neptune and Saturn), causing a loss of faith in cryptocurrencies’ safety and stability as a legitimate currency.” At the time this was written. Bitcoin was trading around $13,000. It soared to nearly $65,000 by late April, and then lost over 50% of its value by late May.
  • EXPLOSION IN GRAIN PRICES: “Taurus is one of the signs ruling foods. In particular, Taurus rules foods grown on farms, like grains, such as Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans. Here, we see the pattern associated with a boom/bust cycle…” Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat have risen to their highest levels since 2013 as of May 2021. Corn is testing $8.00/bu, Wheat $7.75, Soybeans traded above $16.50.
  • INFLATION: “This would furthermore indicate inflation may soon be on the way. It usually starts with commodities, and Wheat is one of the founding fathers of commodity markets.” As of this writing, April’s CPI numbers were the highest since September 2008.
  • WINTER (DECEMBER 21, 2020-MARCH 20, 2021): “The Ascendant (in the Winter Ingress, Washington D.C.) is 29° Scorpio, conjunct Joe Biden’s natal Sun and Venus, so he may be favorably highlighted this season, especially if he wins the 2020 election (this part was written in August 2020). In the last degree of Scorpio, it is the end of an era. But the old force doesn’t go out easily. It has to make a statement of revenge or retaliation. But once the transition takes place, then Venus is rising is Sagittarius. This lends an air of cooperation and agreements, especially in trade deals with other nations.” Biden’s first 100 days in office were considered a great success for both the nation and himself. However, just before Biden was inaugurated, the storming of the Capitol on January 6 revealed the revenge and retaliation of former President Trump and his supporters over the loss of the election they insist was “stolen” and fraudulent.
  • Also, related to the Winter season and specifically January 2021, “All of these aspects signify the momentum of a new change, and the resistance to it by different groups, some of which may have anarchy, social disruption, and chaos on their agenda. It seems that whatever party won the election, the other side is not willing to accept the result and chooses to act out its disapproval.” Again, the insurrection and attack on the Capital fits this analysis and its timing very well.

  • SPRING 2021: :“This is a very hopeful (spring) chart because Jupiter is rising, conjunct the Ascendant, at 21° Aquarius. This combination relates to optimism (Jupiter) about the future (Aquarius). It portends exciting news about trade and travel (Jupiter), innovation, and technology (Aquarius), and it may be favorable for the housing market.” COVID-19 travel and social and business restrictions are lifted in the U.S. and the housing market is exploding. 

 

Belangrijke mededeling

Het doel van deze scorekaart is niet om de toekomstige beweging van verschillende financiële markten te prognosticeren. Dat is echter wel het doel van de Schogt Market Timing & MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) abonnementsdiensten. Deze column is geen abonnementsdienst.

Er wordt geen enkele garantie gegeven omtrent de juistheid van dit verslag. Beslissingen op de financiële markten zijn uitsluitend de verantwoordelijkheid van de lezer, en noch de auteur noch de uitgevers aanvaarden enige verantwoordelijkheid voor deze individuele beslissingen. De lezer dient te begrijpen dat de handel in futures en opties als zeer riskant wordt beschouwd.

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