Vooruitblik op de week van 23 augustus

Mededeling - Wegens vakantie wordt de Vooruitblik op de week van 16 t/m 30 augustus niet vertaald maar hier wel voor u geplaatst in het Engels.

Review and Preview

We made it. The deepest part of the Cardinal Climax midsection is end now, from the point of view of where the majority of the longest planetary cycles congregated (July 21-August 21).

The world didn’t end. But I do believe political and economic leaders of the world (particularly here in the USA) made critical decisions during this time band that will reshape the balance of power in the world over the coming decade, and perhaps several decades. The most notable decisions in this regard included the passage of the Financial Regulatory Reform Bill on July 21, and the August 10 decision of the Federal Reserve Board to resume purchases of U.S. Treasuries to keep long-term interest rates down (along with their short-term Fed funds rate), instead of commencing an“exit strategy” to draw down its hugely inflated balance sheet since the crisis of 2008. Although the purpose of each was to protect the consumer and avoid a double dip recession, I don’t think it will accomplish either. The only people protected by each of these acts will be the bankers themselves. And even that protection will be short-lived. The result, in my opinion, will be exactly the same as the “lost decade” in Japan, which of course everyone disagrees with. This time (and this country’s conditions), is different. Really? I don’t think so.

Last week I discussed all the bearish divergence signals occurring in global equity markets since June 21. Well, this week most of the equity markets started a recovery that lasted into Wednesday-Thursday. But then it ended abruptly as most fell hard into the end of the week. Some of these indices made new lows for the month, and others closed lower but did not make new lows. In almost all cases, however, it was a week that started out with hope and ended in worry, which is about par for the course when Mercury turns retrograde AND Saturn makes its third and final waning square to Pluto, while in opposition to Jupiter. That is the week that was.

Short-Term Geocosmics

Mercury will be retrograde for the next three weeks, and I suspect analysts will be looking back and assessing what just occurred in the past month, while trying to figure out what it means for the future.

Except for Mercury retrograde, there are few geocosmic signatures in force this coming week. The Sun will leave Leo and move into Virgo on Monday, commencing a full moon on Tuesday. That’s really about it, which suggests this will be a week of reflection and analysis. The focus of analysis will probably upon jobs, which is the domain of Virgo. Where have all the jobs gone? More importantly, when will they return?

But that doesn’t mean the markets and the news will be quiet for long. You may remember the last time Mercury went retrograde (April 17-May 11). That was when the Deepwater Horizon Oil rig exploded in the Gulf of Mexico, leading to the worst oil spill in American history (April 20). That was also the day that Chiron ingressed into Pisces. The high of the year unfolded in the many world equity markets then too, such as in the DJIA on April 26, when Saturn also formed its fourth opposition to Uranus. It was during this period that the DJIA had that unbelievable 1000-point drop in about 25 minutes, but then recovered 800 of those points into the close (May 6). This Mercury Retrograde period will end nearby to the second passage of the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction on September 18. We could see markets exhibiting huge price ranges again.

With most of the signatures of this Cardinal Climax ending a one-month peak as of Saturday, August 21, we are apt to observe one of two market behaviors. Either the trends that started late last week continue into this week and maybe beyond, or we find markets drifting back and forth, looking for clarity in an environment that seems like a fog. With Mercury retrograde, we are apt to see mixed economic signals and contradictory political ones, making clarity a rare commodity. The most disturbing characteristic under Mercury retrograde happens when political leaders try to rush into a decision before a matter has had proper time for study and debate.

Longer-Term Thoughts

The Sun will start its month-long trek into Virgo now, so let’s talk about jobs in light of the recent government and central bank decisions during the mid-section of the Cardinal Climax last week. The jobs crisis is not just a USA phenomenon. Friday’s Wall Street Journal reports “Jobs Crisis Grows as Greece Falters.” The austerity program the IMF advised for Greece is clearly sending that country into a much deeper recession (it was obvious that would be the result, which makes you wonder what is the purpose to the IMF). Friday’s Wall Street Journal also reported “Jobless Claims Jump in New Sign Recovery is Sputtering.” The too was obvious given the economic and political direction (and lack thereof) with the U.S Congress and White House. You can’t spend you way out of such a deep recession anymore than “You can bomb the world to pieces, but you can’t bomb it into peace” (lyrics from “Bomb the World,” by Michael Franti).

In Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal was an excellent article by Jeremy Siegel and Jeremy Schwartz titled, “The Great American Bond Bubble.” Readers may recall that I expected a bubble in financial markets this summer related to Jupiter conjunct Uranus in Aries. My initial thought was that this bubble would happen in equities. But by early July my opinion changed that it would happen instead in U.S. Treasuries. The August 10 decision of the Fed to resume buying of U.S. Treasuries, instead of drawing down their balance sheet, virtually assures that Treasuries are indeed now entering the realm of the “Double Bubble Trouble,” a return to rates that were present in mid-December 2008 when transiting Jupiter was in conjunction to the natal Jupiter the Federal Reserve Board chart. The 30-Year Treasury Bonds ran up to a record high of 143 then. Within six months they were back down to 113. On Friday, August 20, they were making a new yearly high above 135, having gone almost vertical on a weekly chart since the 114 level of April 9.

To digress just a bit, I would like to use this to support my contention that the Fed decision could very well result in a “lost decade” in the USA, just as happened in Japan in the 1990’s (and again in the first decade of the new century, so it was really two lost decades, and this wonderful country is still in “lost-but-not-found” land). After Japan’s economy and stock market crashed following its all-time in December 1989, their government and central bank also tried a “quantitative easing” program of reducing interest rates and supporting its bond market. The JGB (Japanese Government Bond) rallied from a low of about 87 in 1990, to an all-time high of - guess what? – 145 in 2003. And it is rallying again, currently around 142 as of Friday. So they too have a case developing of “Double Bubble Trouble.” But the more important point is this: did it help their economy? Did it grow their job market? Did it help their stock market? No.

So what will be the result of this “Great American (and Japanese) Bond Bubble?” First of all, it is devastating “Main Street” savers, like retirees and soon-to-retire persons. Although the value of Bonds has increased, the dividend yield (interest) which savers use to depend upon for spending has evaporated. This means many (most) have to draw down their savings just to survive. They are no longer purchasers in the consumer-driven economy of anything but the essentials. A great segment of society that is necessary to enhance economic expansion is injured and out of play. Furthermore, as Siegel and Schwartz state, “Is there any doubt that interest rates will rise over the next two decades as the baby boomers retire and the enormous government entitlement programs kick into gear?” In other words, this bubble will burst, as all bubbles do, and it will end badly, as all bubbles do. It may even end in a hyperinflation, for as Martin Armstrong, former Chair of Princeton Economics (www.martinarmstrong.org) writes, “When empires die, the clash between private and public assets swing into hyperactive mode…. When people are afraid the money will become worthless they spend it faster before it depreciates and that creates hyperinflation. It all depends on where the confidence resides – with government or within the private sector. We are headed into the latter.”

But back to the question about employment, as we are entering Virgo and pundits will be discussing the jobs situation over the next month. Here is part of the future, and the shift in balance discussed last week per the Cardinal Climax, and alluded to by Armstrong. We have reached the peak in government employment. Maybe not at the Federal level yet, but most definitely at the state and local level, where the great majority of states and communities are headed towards bankruptcy and default. They will be forced to lay off state and local government employees in droves in the next year or so. Where will they go? How will they live with no interest on their savings due to the low interest rate decisions of the central bank which only seems to benefit other bankers – and large banks at that who are still “too big to fail?”

On August 16, the WSJ reported that the 110th bank failure in the USA for this year occurred the prior week. The trend continues towards record bank closings of small banks, who are being gobbled up by the “too big to fail banks.”

But the good news is that we made it through the heaviest part of the Cardinal Climax, which means (to me) a New Era is beginning. It may be slow in getting off the ground, but I think the majority of people will now see that the relationship between government and its people has to change, and it will now begin to change. As with every successful relationship, the alchemical balance between closeness and separation needs to be found. Then trust can start and from that, mutual growth and even excitement about the future will follow.

Mededelingen

	De prepublicatieactie van het Vooruitzichtenboek voor 2011 is gestart! We brengen ook dit jaar een vertaling van Ray Merriman's jaarboek voor het volgende jaar uit, exclusief met analyses voor de Nederlandse economie en AEX index. Geplande uitlevering vanaf 15 (16-22) december 2010. Het boek kan vooraf (uiterlijk 31 oktober) met korting besteld worden en bovendien geldt in dezelfde periode een korting op tal van onze nieuwsbrieven. Lees verder>>
	GRATIS ASTROLOGIELEZING - ForumOnAstrology.com geeft zondag 29 augustus (maandagmorgen NL tijd) een gratis preconferentelezing op internet, die door iedereen die zich op ForumOnAstrology.com registreert, later kan worden bekeken en beluisterd - gratis. Het is de voorloper op een driedaagse videoconferentie op internet vrijdag 1, zaterdag 2, zondag 3 oktober a.s.. Hieraan doen tal van internationaal bekende sprekers mee, waaronder Irma Schogt met een lezing "Financial Astrology, the basics". De conferentie is vriendelijk geprijsd (en u hoeft er de deur niet voor uit met alle kosten vandien!) en als bezoeker krijgt u toegangscodes waarmee u in de drie maanden na 3 oktober nog alle lezingen uit het archief op internet kunt bekijken. Lees hier meer>>
	Bent u een actieve korte termijn handelaar met voorkeur voor een technische en cyclische marktanalyse? Dan zijn wellicht onze wekelijkse market reports of zelfs dagelijkse market reports met kortetermijnhandelsaanbevelingen iets voor u. Deze dagelijkse rapportages behandelen alle hierboven genoemde markten behalve ruwe olie. Extra toegevoegd zijn daarentegen (in de daily en weekly) S&P en NASDAQ futures en Euro/Dollar en (alleen in de weekly) de Dollar/Yen spotmarkt.
	In Market Timing Digest augustus stelt de Amerikaanse financieel astroloog Richard Schulz zich voor in een artikel waarin hij een aantal opmerkelijke beleggersadviezen geeft, daarmee de mening van onze andere 12 financieel astrologen delend en bevestigend. De nieuwsbrief vertelt geeft maandelijks een beeld van wat nu 13 internationale financiëel astrologen voorzien voor de financiële markten. Met cruciale draaidata, modelportefeuille en regelmatige updates. Met wekelijkse updates van marktontwikkelingen en mutaties in de modelportefeuille. Lees hier meer>>
	De resterende exemplaren van het boek 'Forecast for 2010' (nog 5 stuks!) zijn nu te koop voor slechts € 25.00 (plus verzendkosten en btw). Met o.a. nog 5 maanden aan Kritieke Omslagdata voor de boeg (die tot dusver uitermate nauwgezet waren) en het grotelijnenplaatje van de markten is dit boek nog steeds van onschatbare waarde. Iedereen die nu een jaarabonnement afsluit of verlengt op de SMT Cyclus Nieuwsbrief of welke andere nieuwsbrief dan ook, krijgt een boek gratis zo lang de voorraad strekt.

Raymond Merrimans “Update van financiële markten van zondag 11 juli 2010 is beschikbaar op MP3 (maar ook (met enige wachttijd) op en CD). Het verwachtingsplaatje van de financiële markten tot in oktober is  hier nu te bestellen>>

 Het doel van deze gratis nieuwsbrief

Sommige lezers, en sommige instituten, kunnen veronderstellen dat het dient om de toekomstige beweging van verschillende financiële markten te voorspellen. Maar dat is echter het doel van onze nieuwsbrieven per abonnement, en niet van deze gratis service! Deze column is geen abonnement in die zin. Het is een gratis service, geschreven om de lezer de relatie tussen astrologische factoren en collectieve menselijke activiteiten te onderwijzen op het moment dat het gebeurt. Dit betreffende, bericht ik regelmatig over wat er de week daarvoor in verscheidene aandelen- en andere financiële markten over de hele wereld gebeurde, en die beweging bespreek ik in het licht van de geokosmische factoren die werkzaam waren. Vervolgens identificeer ik de geokosmische factoren die de daarop volgende week werkzaam zijn, of zelfs de volgende maand(en), of zelfs jaren, en hoe ik denk dat deze signaturen het menselijke leven naar alle waarschijnlijkheid in de toekomstige tijd zal beïnvloeden. Ik doe dit vanuit het perspectief van een cyclusanalist die kijkt naar de militaire, politieke, economische, en zelfs financiële markten van de wereld. Het gaat mij erom de lezer zowel te onderwijzen als te attenderen op het psychologische klimaat waar we ons in bevinden - bekeken vanuit een astrologisch perspectief.

Mijn hoop is dat het de lezer zal helpen om deze psychologische energieën te begrijpen die ten grondslag liggen aan (of samenvallen met) de nieuwsberichten en als gevolg daarvan de financiële markten van de dag.

Disclaimer

Er worden geen garanties gegeven voor de juistheid van de hierin gemaakte vermeldingen. Iedere beslissing in de financiële markt valt volledig onder de verantwoordelijkheid van de lezer. Noch de auteur, noch de vertaler of de publicist neemt enige verantwoording voor de individuele beslissingen van de lezer(s). De lezer wordt geacht zelf te begrijpen dat het handelen in futures en opties een groot risico met zich meebrengen kan.