Insight in Market Movements

Forecast for 2010

yearly special by Raymond Merriman

New: as from this year also available in Dutch

It's that time of the year again! And this year, Schogt Market Timing is happy to announce that the book will also be available in Dutch translation, for our growing audience of Dutch readers.

About the book

• "… fewer opportunities to work as more and more companies go out of business.” Result: 3,000,000 more jobs were lost in the first six months of 2009 as many companies – like auto companies – filed for bankruptcy.
• “A government-backed financial bailout to help the auto companies is likely.” Result: Early in the year, the U.S. government approved large bailout loans to both GM and Chrysler, and then helped both to go through bankruptcy to avoid further debts and thus survive… for the time being.
• “… major upheaval in the structure of the Federal Reserve Board, and possibly a time when the entity has lost control. At the very least, it’s control will be seriously challenged, and don’t be surprised to see calls from Congress or the White House to take it over, or eliminate it altogether, or to remove the current Fed Chair… With Uranus and Saturn T-squaring (Bernanke’s chart), his status suddenly comes under questioning.” Result: One of the most accurate mundane forecasts to date…. House Resolution 1207, the Federal Reserve Transparency Act, sponsored by Congressman Ron Paul, to audit – with the purpose of eliminating the FRB – was passed in June. During the early summer, Bernanke was called to testify before Congress on his role in the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the possible forced sell out of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America. He was treated very harshly by Congress, and there is now some doubt that he will be reappointed when his term comes up in January 2010.
• “…transiting Jupiter in Capricorn (makes) a conjunction to the FRB natal Jupiter in the first half of December 2008. Up until then, the FRB may still be accommodative.” Result: The FRB lowered its Fed Funds rate to a historically low 0-.25% in mid-December 2008 (the book was written in November 2008).
• “My bias is that there will be a low in the second leg of a double bottom (in Treasuries), due July 2009 +/- 5 months… the next instance of the Moon’s North Node entering this… sector of the zodiac will be April 21-August 21, 2009, which is in the time frame for the 25-month cycle trough (in Treasuries).” Result: the low in Treasuries for the year, as of this writing, was June 11 and June 22.
• “A 4- and 6-year cycle low may be completed any time before May 2009… Once that low is in, look for a very healthy 5-16 month rally. If the rally doesn’t last more than 20 weeks, then … another round of hysteria and panic grips the market…” Result: The stock market low occurred on March 6, and as of this writing in late July, equity prices have been rising for over 4 months.
• “Gold is due to complete its 8.5-year cycle trough… ideally around October-November 2008... Once it (the new cycle) starts, look for a re-test of $1000/ounce and maybe higher…” Result: Gold bottomed at 688 on October 24, 2008. On February 20, it hit 1009.80, its highest price of the year as of this writing.
• “Silver is due to form a 111-week cycle (low) in late 2008, followed by a rally into the first half of 2009…That low appears to be forming now as this is being written in October-November 2008, perhaps with the 840 low of October 28. Once that low is in, look for a rally of at least 13-37 weeks… the price target could be as high as 1479 +/- 150.” Result: The low was October 24, 2008, and the high for the year - as of this writing - occurred June 3, 2009 at 1594 in the cash index and 1625 in the nearby futures contract.
• “A 17-month cycle low in the Euro (currency) and Swiss Franc is due in late 2008, early 2009, to be followed by a 2-8 month corrective rally into early 2009. This rally should not exceed 1.5000 in the Euro or 1.0000 in the Swiss Franc…” Result: The Swiss Franc bottomed November 21, 2008 and the Euro did the same on March 4, 2009. Since the lows of March, the Swiss Franc has rallied as high as .9471 and the Euro to 1.4445 as of this writing August 1).
• “Saturn and Uranus will be in opposition all year, which suggests very extreme weather conditions and temperatures, with a bias towards much colder temperatures than usual at times.” Result: July was the coldest month on record in many regions of the grain-producing states.
• “A 9-year cycle trough in Corn is due late 2008 through 2010, and ideally by mid-2009. The low is projected to hold above 300.” Result: Cash Corn fell to 290 in the first week of December 2008, and is now testing the 300 level again as we come to the end of July 2009. Let’s see if these lows hold as forecasted.
• “Thus all of these cycles seem to be suggesting that an important low in Wheat is forming in late 2008 through 2009, and ideally by the early part of 2009. Once this low is in, look for a substantial corrective rally to begin.” Result: Wheat bottomed December 5, 2008 at 455 in the nearby contract. It then rallied to the high of the year on June 1 at 677.
• “The 24-month half-cycle low (in Crude Oil) is due August 2008-May 2009, at 39.00-50.00. Once completed look for a 30.00-60.00 rally to a crest May-December 2009.” Result: The market dropped even further, to a triple bottom at 32.40-33.55 that ended in February 2009. Since then, Crude has rallied back to as high as 73.38 on June 30, the highest price as of this writing. In previous writings, MMA was perhaps the first to call for Crude to exceed 100 (with a top by May 2008, which overshot into July 11, 2008), and the first to call for it to decline 60-90% from those highs, all during the transit of Uranus in Pisces (2003-2010).

  And of course: the all-important Critical Reversal Dates. Many of the 2009 critical reversal dates given for various markets have been impressive.* As of late July, all 7 of the major reversal dates given in stock indices unfolded within only two trading days, including the low of the year exactly on the March 6-9 date given. That is 100% accuracy! All 7 dates given for Gold and/or Silver were also accurate within only 2 trading days for at least 4% reversals, including the high of the year in Silver (June 3) and the low of the year in both after the first half of January (i.e. April 20). That’s 100% accuracy again! The same was true in the currency markets. That is, all seven reversal dates given for the Euro currency (as well as Dollar-Yen) were accurate within only 2 trading days, including the yearly low in the Dollar-Yen (January 21), the yearly low in the Euro currency and Swiss Franc (March 4 and 12), and the first-half yearly high in the Euro and Swiss Franc (June 2-3). In the grain markets, 8 of the 9 given reversal dates prior to August 1 correlated with excellent market reversals within 4 trading days, the vast majority within only 2 days, including the low of the year in Soybeans (March 2). The reversal dates for Crude Oil were accurate within three trading days in 6 of the 7 dates listed, including both the high and low of the year. Five of these 6 hits were within only one trading day of the reversal. The weakest results were in the Treasuries, as only 5 of the 9 dates given coincided with a market reversal within two trading days. If the range was expanded to 5 trading days, then 8 of the nine dates listed were a hit, including both the yearly high of January 15 and low of June 22.

  Do you think this time of accuracy would be valuable to traders? You betcha!

  *) It is considered a “hit” if the reversal date coincides with a major, half-primary, or primary cycle, or a trading cycle from which prices reverse at least 4% in equity indices and commodities, and 2.5% in Treasuries or currencies.

  

  Prices including shipment

• €44.00 Shipment Netherlands**
• €49.00 Shipment Europe**,
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  *)Excl. VAT.

  Three reminders: 1) the annual Forecast book is ALWAYS written in October and November, and 2) ALWAYS mailed out when received back from the printer, which is ALWAYS around December 15. Most of you will receive it between December 16-22.  

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  Forecast book for 2010 by Raymond A. Merriman Available Options: - Shipment Netherlands € 44.00 - Shipment Europe € 54.00 - World shipment € 64.00 Choose which version you wantForecast book for 2010 € 44.00Forecast book for 2010 € 54.00Forecast book for 2010 € 64.00

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