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Index 17 August 2022

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Introductory Richard Schulz

MARKET TIMING DIGEST
 

The World-wide Platform for Financial Astrology

Financial astrology

I am thankful for the opportunity to participate in Market Timing Digest. 25 years ago I developed the TAO 1, the first version of the Technical Aspect Oscillator. It assigns a positive or negative number to every degree of planetary pair separation, and it is a continuous curve, moving from positive at sextile, down to negative at square, up to very positive at trine and down to very negative at conjunction. I have theorized that the transiting TAO composite represents global psychology (and maybe mundane events). The longer moving average of the TAO 4 peaked in Nov 2007, rose minimally from Jun 09 to Dec 09, and is declining into lower lows now. This indicates increasing pessimism, and that serious negative economic events are likely.

I combine the astrological TAO index with daily and weekly Technical ETF Charts to trade the ETF positions in the MT4 (medium-term TAO 4) and LT4 (long-term TAO 4) Portfolios.

Below is a weekly technical chart of the SPY ETF. There was a high in Oct 2007, followed by a low in Mar 09, and (given the TAO 4 and Technicals) a high in Apr 2010, and another local low in the Sep/Oct 2010 time frame. For weekly charts, the 9 and 25 week moving averages combined with the 9/25/16 MACD are a basic framework. I also analyze some graphs that I create by hand. As an added balance, I review multiple social, economic and scientific articles per day. Feedback from my subscribers is also helpful.

As a brief technical overview, the SPY chart shows trending moving averages on top and MACD momentum underneath. The 25 week ma is the primary SPY trend. The 9 week is useful when trends exceed normal standard deviation moves. And the MACD follows weekly momentum. In a calculated and specific methodology, I combine those numbers, and the TAO 4 number is included. The trades and forecasts are then generated.
 

Financial Astrology SPY - SDR S&P 500
 

 

This graph is giving a Low Risk SELL indication very similar to Dec 07 and May 07. There never was a Low Risk Buy from Mar 09; however, Jul 09 was a buy. Economically, somc also considers monthly/quarterly data releases. For Summer 2010:

  1. The average of the US, Eurozone, China and Japan PMIs is slowing and likely to go below 50; when PMI is lower than 50, it represents economic contraction.
  2. There is continued adverse intensity in Competitive Currency Devaluation = debts rise
  3. The ECRI leading index has been below –10 for 2 weeks now = renewed recession
  4. Depression 2.0 is alive: food banks are thriving, and 20% underemployment is the norm.
  5. Foreclosure rates escalating. Fannie, Freddie and FHA are technically insolvent.
  6. Consumer = 70% US GDP = Pessimistic = earning less, spending less, saving more.

There is always more, but for now, for the conservative, SH and TLT are Buys.

With Regards,
Richard Schulz ,
Schulz on Market Cycles