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The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Vol I Cycles & Patterns in the Markets

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Raymond A. Merriman

This is a book about probabilities in the stock market. Specifically this book covers the entire history of the New York Stock Exchange (1789-2005) as well as the Japanese Nikkei Stock Index (1949-2005), identifies 15 long and short-term recurrent cycles, and the types of patterns which unfold in each. It clearly explains not only WHEN a market is likely to form an important crest or trough, but also HOW that cycle will likely unfold. With this knowledge one knows where the market is, where it is headed, when it is likely to get there, and what it will do next.

"If you are done with Fourier transform cycle printouts, and cycles sent down from Sinai, this is your book. Raymond Merriman teaches you how to isolate and prove historical cycles: in an eighteen year cycle. Prices will do "this" at a certain point, but they will NOT do "that." In setting long (and short) term positions, what you want to know is what ARE the cycles and how do they perform? Merriman puts you in control and doesn't mandate a computing environment more complex than you and your pencil."
- Drake, Tenorio Research, Editor of theGold Fax Market Letter.

"Comprehensive Guide to Understanding Stock Market Cycles"
- Posted by Amazon. com June 20th, 2002

Many traders and investors do not pay attention to cycles in stock prices. After reading this book, they will change their tune. Cycles should play a major role in your stock market arsenal and this book clearly lays out the case in excrutiating detail.

This book is Volume I of a 5-part series on " The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing" by Raymond Merriman:

• Volume I. Cycles and Patterns in Indexes
•  Volume II. Geocosmic Correlations to Investment Cycles
• Volume III. Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles
• Volume IV. Geocosmic Correlations to Short-Term Trading
•   Volume V. Technical Tools and Trading Cycles (not yet completed)

This 240-page 16 chapter book provides solid evidence that cycles exist in stock prices. The book documents thecycles and patterns with graphs and charts, figures and diagrams, and tables.

Merriman begins by explaining cycle characteristics -- definition of a cycle, troughs and crests, time band, and distortions. Then he covers the three basic categories of cycles (primary, long-term, and short-term) followed by their subcycles known as phases. Next, Merriman covers trends and teh criteria for identifying bull and bear markets.

Long-term cycles (80-year, 54-year Kondratieff) and their subcycles are then reviewed with examples. One chapter is devoted solely to the 18-year cycle in stock prices because that time interval occurs frequently. Multiples of the this cycle -- 36-year, 54-year, 72-year and 90-year -- are covered as they also appear over time in the past >200 years. Merriman provides a table of 18-year cycles from 1797 to 2000 showing the cycle highs and lows, accompanied by 12 charts illustrating the cycle high and low points.

Merriman then delves into the subcycles of the 18-year cycle with a detailed discussion of the eleven cycle periods from 1797 to 2000. He then moves into the well-known 4-year cycle pinpointing all of these cycles since 1896 with the month and year of the cycle troughs. This is further supported with a table indicating every 4-year cycle trough, crest, and trough; months up and down; low, high, and low of cycle; % up and % down. All the cycles in the table were grouped in terms of the larger 18-year cycle. The structure of the cycle is reviewed using 27 graphs of each 4-year cycle pinpointing the high and low poits. Additional information is provided on the two- and three- phase 4-year cycles and subcycles, and a table showing the 4-year cycle from 1895 and the proximity to the U.S. Presidential Election. Details on the 22.5 months cycle are also included.

There is a chapter on all the cycles evident in the Japan Nikkei Stock Index. Technical analysis is the title of a chapter that deals with investing vs. trading, and market timing vs. buy-and-hold. Included is a table showing the 4-year cycle crests in U.S. stock prices and the length ot time needed to get back to the crest.

In summary, Merriman provides a truly enlightening and useful guide to identifying and using cycles to time the market with increased precision. Students of the market will find that this book offers another important tool to conquering the market. Cycle review should be part of every trader's and investor's methodology, otherwise optimal results may not be obtained