Market Preview for the week beginning May 22, 2023

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Friday that stresses in the banking sector could mean that interest rates won’t have to be as high to control inflation. – Jeff Cox, Fed Chair Powell Says Rates May Not Have to Rise as Much as Expected to Curb Inflation, “ www.cnbc.com, May 19, 2023. 

The bigger they are, the harder they fall. Old saying from either boxing lore and/or the Bible. 

Is there any adage more appropriate that describes the current T-square of Jupiter (the “biggest”) to Pluto (the “fall” or “collapse”) and Mars (the “trigger” or “the punch”)? In politics, it could mean exactly what it says. In terms of markets, it could also mean, “The higher they go, the harder they fall.”  

Since we are talking about financial markets here, we note several global stock indices have blasted off to new multi-month and even multi-year highs last week, which certainly fits the Mars/Jupiter square from early Leo to early Taurus. Will they now fall as hard as they have rallied since their breakouts that began around the time of the Sun/Uranus conjunction on May 9 (Uranus pertains to breaking out above long-term resistance or below long-term support)? 

Most notable is probably the breakout in the Japanese Nikkei stock index, which soared to 30,924 last week, its highest level since 1990, and a “breakout” above the double tops at 30,714 and 30,795 in February and September 2021 under the Saturn/Uranus waning square. But maybe it was the German DAX, which actually did rally to a new all-time on Friday, reaching 16,331, slightly above its prior all-time high of 16,290 achieved on November 18, 2021, under the same Saturn/Uranus waning square. 

In the Americas, it was a tale of two markets. The NASDAQ soared to a new yearly high, and the S&P to its highest mark in 9 months. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was closer to its 7-week low early last week before recovering somewhat into Friday, but again down on the day and well off its cycle high of May 1 when the Trickster was near its retrograde midpoint. 

Nearly all of the world’s stock indices rallied nicely into the end of last week, except the Hang Seng in Hong Kong, which instead did indeed fall to its lowest mark in eight weeks on Friday. 

There were other notable activities in financial markets last week under this developing fixed T-square of Mars/Jupiter/Uranus, May 16-23. Gold, for instance, dropped to a 7-week low of 1954.40 on Thursday, May 18, as Jupiter squared Pluto. Silver fell to 23.48 on the same day, well off its yearly high of 26.43 on May 5. By the next day (Friday), each was undergoing a smart rally. Crude Oil was also up nicely last week to a high of 73.58. As recently as May 4, it was making a new yearly low at 63.64. This is an important market right now because Jupiter is involved, making a square to both Mars and Pluto May 18-23. Bitcoin, on the other hand, had an inside week to the prior week’s range. Still, it is holding above 25,000 in this reversal zone, which is a positive for bulls (so far). 

Going back to our original quote that opened this week’s column: The higher they (markets) go, the harder they fall. There are other pearls of wisdom, too, such as, once resistance breaks, it becomes support. Thus, we have parameters as to whether this will be a big reversal zone in which lofty markets will suddenly collapse or a continued upside breakout. 

The breakouts today are marked by the Sun/Uranus conjunction of May 9. Usually, when a market breaks out under that aspect, it will continue higher for up to 14 trading days afterwards before a serious pullback. That time band extends out to May 26. In other words, if this is a case of “the higher they go, the harder they will fall,” the reversal would most likely occur any time before May 29 (May 26 is a Friday). Another market maxim is that market behaviors are governed by fear and greed (Saturn and Jupiter). Jupiter is running the tables right now. The Sun will square Saturn on May 29. But I have always questioned that maxim, for I think greed is also a characteristic of fear.

Short-term Geocosmics and Longer-Term Thoughts

White House and House Republican negotiators trying to resolve an impasse over raising the debt ceiling broke off talks, tempering hopes of quickly reaching a deal ahead of a government default as soon as next month. Negotiators said the breakdown in talks centered around how deeply to cut the government budget, with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.) saying Friday that spending levels were a major sticking point as Republicans pressed for deeper reductions than Democrats appeared poised to accept. – Siobhan Hughes, David Harrison, and Natalie Andrews, ‘We’re at a Very Bad Moment’: Negotiators Pause Debt-Ceiling Talks,” Wall Street Journal Online, May 19, 2023. 

Astrology (and the astrologer) is a choice-giver, not the choice-maker. – Dennis Harness, Psychologist and Astrologer, Sedona, Arizona.

The markets did not collapse under the Mars-Jupiter-Pluto fixed T-square that is now underway (May 16-23). In fact, several global stock indices soared higher as news of a possible breakthrough in the debt ceiling negotiations was cited last week (before Friday’s statement to the contrary after the market close). However, as mentioned last week, there is not likely to be an agreement while this aspect is underway. After all, fixed T-squares are not indicators of compromise and agreement. On the contrary, they usually indicate stubbornness and reluctance to budge much at all. Parties tend to remain firm in their positions. It is as if “being right” is more important than doing what is best for most people concerned (Aquarius). With Mars about to enter Leo, square to Jupiter, there is also a more than usual amount of egoism and machoism involved. “Being right” is sometimes mistaken for “being tough, being strong.” In many cases, it is just being immature, primal, and even greedy (which, as mentioned before, is a mask for being fearful – fearful of being seen as weak). 

In any event, these psychological dramas at the highest political levels are being acted out as a critical deadline fast approaches that can lead to negative consequences in spite of Jupiter’s usually positive nature. It can still lead to panic, especially as we are right in the midst of this May 16-23 cosmic crunch time, otherwise known as the 3-star critical reversal period. Everyone wants a resolution to this debt ceiling impasse (well, maybe not everyone). And I think it can still happen by the Jupiter/Saturn sextile (June 19). And when it does, markets will explode even further to the upside. But that doesn’t mean there will not be a sudden plunge first as the two sides continue to fight with their feet in cement. For equity indices, this is still a case of the higher they go, the harder they fall. And with Mars involved, the plunge can be steep and quick, even at a record level. 

At the same time, this matter points out one astrological truism: market behavior is not directly related to geocosmic factors. Geocosmic factors accurately describe the psychological climate unfolding, and by deduction (as well as historical rates of frequency), we project that psychological climate onto human activity and make an educated guess about how it will impact financial markets. Often we are correct. But there are other times when we have to realize that choice has the ultimate effect on the outcome. And the debt ceiling limit is still a matter of choice, and thus equity markets are rising because investors think government leaders will work this out. 

As long as investors think it will be resolved, and as often as political leaders give soundbites that progress is being made, stock markets will rally. But if the debt ceiling limit isn’t resolved before a default hits, then it’s “the higher they go, the harder they fall.”  

This also applies to political leaders too, as in, “The bigger they are, the harder they fall.” The Republicans seem to know this. A default is not going to hurt them as much as it will hurt the “big guy.” The “big guy” needs to be careful about misjudging this situation, as if it is purely a matter requiring him to be strong, tough, and unbending. What is required is to find common ground and compromise. Yes, his supporters will say he is right. But the opposition and the independents will say otherwise once it begins to endanger their sense of security. 

ANNOUNCEMENTS

	ONLY ONE MORE WEEK! JUNE 1-4: THE MMA INVESTMENT 2023 RETREAT AND MMTA3 COURSE TWO: “GEOCOSMIC CORRELATIONS TO LONG-TERM INVESTMENT CYCLES.”   The 4-day investment retreat is taking place at the Michigan State University Management Education Center in Troy, Michigan, and is also offered virtually via Zoom. Instructors and presenters will include Ray Merriman, Gianni Di Poce, Kat Powell, and Rita Perea.   This 4-day intensive will introduce the participant to the role of Outer-Planet Aspects and Ingresses to long-term financial market cycles. With this understanding, one will learn to identify time bands that historically have coincided with the most favorable long-term investment opportunities as well as time bands that have correlated with long-term market peaks or selling opportunities. These studies are based on actual research on the performance of financial markets (like the U.S. and British stock markets) going back to the 17th century. Once these studies and methods are disclosed, the instructors will then illustrate how they apply them to current market conditions. Outlooks will be given for long-term cycles in various markets (such as stock indices, Gold, and Bitcoin), with the goal of identifying when the next excellent investment or selling opportunities are most likely to take place.   You do not need to be a student of the two-year MMTA3 program to join! “Geocosmic Correlations to Long-Term Investment Cycles” is a standalone course designed for investors. This event is an excellent opportunity to interact with MMA President Raymond Merriman and MMTA Director Gianni Di Poce, and several other like-minded students of financial market timing over an extended 4-day period. There is nothing like the in-person interactions that occur at an MMA Investment Retreat.   Cost is $2750* or€ 2500* and includes a 120-page workbook, all class recordings, and slides of the class presentations. Note that this retreat is also in conjunction with Course Two of MMTA3, and non-student participants will get credit for Course Two if they decide to attend MMTA in the future. For further information on this unique and special event please contact us by email>> or call us at ++31 294 415917 during European business hours. Excluding VAT if applicable
	Outlook 2023 and beyond (for those who speak Dutch)  June 22 Meeting with presentation 'Outlook 2023 & Beyond' by MMA & SMT Analyst Irma Schogt hosted by Asset Manager Today's Group, starting from 19.30 Central European Summer Time. If you are interested in the vision and approach in Asset Management with the Cycles Analysis & Correlating Patterns, then you are welcome to sign up without any obligation. It is planned for a small group (max 8 persons). Location is Hilversum center near parking garage. You may sign up here. We are looking forward to meet you then!
	The May issue of the MMA Cycles Report and Netherlands SMT Cyclus Nieuwsbrief got released last week This month’s report includes another special update on Gold’s long-term cycles and outlook. Every issue provides an intermediate-term investors’ and near-term traders’ outlook for the U.S. Stock Market, Gold, Silver, Copper, Treasuries, Euro Currency, Crude Oil, and Soybeans. The Monthly Cycles Report reviews MMA’s original geocosmic critical reversal dates (CRDs) and Solar/Lunar reversal dates over the next several weeks as well as trading strategies for position and aggressive traders during the next month. With the solar eclipse coming up April 19-20 (square to Pluto) and Mercury turning retrograde April 21, this is an important period for financial markets! If you would like to try a one-month trial of the MMA Monthly Cycles Report or the DutchSMT Cyclus Nieuwsbrief , you can sign up for the May Report for only € 32!*

Disclaimer & State of Purpose

The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the Schogt Market Timing & MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. 

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author's understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come.

The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle's analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.