Market Preview for the week beginning March 26, 2018

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Review and Preview 

Stocks fell sharply on Friday, adding to their steep weekly losses, as investors assessed the possibility of a trade war brewing between the U.S. and China. Week to date, the major averages posted their worst week since January 2016. – Fred Imbert, “Dow Drops More Than 400 Points Into Correction, Posts Worst Week Since January 2016,” www.cnbc.com, March 23, 2018.

Stocks fall as markets doubt the White House has a trade strategy… The president’s trade hawks want to punish China more than they want to change its behavior. This is the mentality that could lead to a trade war and economic damage to everyone. Equity markets reflected that worry Thursday by falling …724 points on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. “ Trump’s China Tariffs,” Wall Street Journal Opinion page, March 23, 2018.

Last week’s column discussed that markets are now very nervous. This week’s global equities markets underlined that observation in bold lettering. In the USA, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1413 points last week, its biggest weekly loss in over two years. It closed at 23,533, very close to its 23,360 low of February 9, 2018. The S&P also held its lows of February 9, 2018, and with a much greater cushion, suggesting that a case of intermarket bullish divergence could occur next week, i.e. the DJIA makes a new low for 2018 next week, but the other two indices do not. Other markets followed the same pattern of selling off sharply, yet so far holding their lows of February 9, 2018, as in China, Hong Kong, Australia, Russia, Argentina and Brazil. But others did not hold their February lows, such as in India, and most of Europe, and instead of a reversal, these markets may be leading other world stock indices lower in the next leg and down into a longer cycle trough.

The enactment of tariff wars between major nations of the world does not usually have a positive correlation for stock markets or economies anywhere. In this instance, it is also accelerating pressure on the U.S. Dollar, which is already struggling near its lowest levels in over three years, after posting its 16.5-year cycle crest just 14 months ago. As the Dollar continues its weakness, however, Gold and Silver have rallied sharply. Gold soared to 1350 on Friday. On Tuesday, it was trading below 1310. Treasuries also benefitted from the stock market selloff, as the Ten-Year notes rallied to their highest level since February 9, 2018, which was the low in the DJIA this year – so far. Bitcoin had a good week amidst all this worry about tariffs and the stock market sell off. The cryptocurrency was up $1156 for the week.

Short-Term Geocosmics and Longer-Term Thouhgts

“Crazy Joe Biden is trying to act like a tough guy. Actually, he is weak, both mentally and physically, and yet he threatens me, for the second time, with physical assault. He doesn’t know me, but he would go down fast and hard, crying all the way.” President Donald Trump tweet, March 22, 2018.

The only element of the American political system to which Donald Trump poses an existential threat is his own presidency. Daniel Henninger, “Yes, Shut Down Mueller,” Wall Street Journal, March 22, 2018.

It is not as if there is a lack of geocosmic activity that correlates with this latest sell off, and beyond that, the occurrence of probably ill-advised decisions, and reactions, by world leaders, such as Donald Trump. After all, Mercury turned retrograde last week, March 22, 2018, the very day Trump announced his decision to levy tariffs against China. Basic Astrology 101 teaches that Mercury retrograde is a favorable period to gather information and hold discussions with others before making a formal decision – especially a decision that may be hurried and a surprise to others. Mercury, the Trickster, is not only retrograde now (implying decisions that will either be regretted, lead to unintended consequences, or later must be modified and changed), but it is turning retrograde in Aries, the sign of impulsivity and bravado. It can be immature, if it isn’t directed to initiating discussions designed to result in positive new beginnings. Perhaps that is what President Trump intended with his Tariff announcement against China. Maybe he is trying to start a new negotiating process with China that will lead to an outcome considered “fair trade.”

However, I am not sure why Trump wants to start a romp with Joe Biden. There is no upside in Trump taking that bait (not that this condition ever mattered to someone with Mars on his Leo Ascendant – in his mind, he must appear as a tough guy). Given that Mercury rules Gemini, and both Biden and Trump (as well as Xi Jinping) are Geminins, and Mercury is retrograding in the war-happy sign of Aries (ruled by Mars), this could turn out to be very entertaining. I mean, can you imagine two Geminis threatening to fight one another? Geminis are known for their words, not their physical prowess. Each could claim victory in such a contest. It would be a war of words and threats, without either laying a hand on the other.

But back to reality. This unstable and confrontational environment could last another ten days, as described last week, and not end until the Mars/Saturn conjunction on April 2, 2018. During that time, the Sun in Aries will also be in a square aspect to Mars (March 24) and Saturn (March 30), while Venus will square Pluto and conjoin Uranus (March 23-28). This does not bode well for stocks, except to say that a bottom of some sort could unfold in these next ten days.

You might make a better return betting on the outcome of the Trump versus Biden match. However, if you are trying to make a killing in the markets during this period of Mercury retrograde, you better be very nimble, and at the same time, less reactive to the bait that others set for you. Think before acting. Know that under Mercury retrograde, there will an abundance of fake outs and false buy and sell signals, where support and resistance get broken, only to witness a sudden turnaround, until it happens again 1-4 days later. If you are not careful, Mercury the Trickster will have your head spinning with sudden twists and turns in the markets. And Mercury retrograde in Aries, with Mars its ruler – coming up on Saturn – are not signatures indicative of being careful with one’s words or actions. They can be useful, however, in making progress on projects that require no assistance from others. Others could interfere with your efforts. Go solo.

Announcements

	NOTE 1: ICR will be released this week to its subscribers. The monthly edition of the MMA International Cycles Report (ICR) will be released this week to its subscribers. Each issue of ICR contains an in-depth analysis of: the XAU index (Gold and Silver Mining stocks), the U.S. Dollar (DXY), British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD), the Australian stock index (ASX), the London FTSE stock index, the Russell 2000 U.S. stock index (RUT), Corn (C) and Wheat (W). The analysis of these markets is written by three of the top graduates of the Merriman Market Timing Academy (MMTA), including Mark Shtayerman (San Diego), Izabella Suleymanova (San Diego), Ulric Aspegren (Sweden), and yours truly, Ray Merriman, on the Australian stock and currency markets. Read more>>
	NOTE 2: The new MMA Bitcoin Daily Report has started! And it made its first official trade on Thursday, March 15, as Bitcoin made a new multi-week low. The cost for this new report is $1500/year or $150/mo, but it is included in the MMA Daily subscription report too, along with 10 other markets (stock indices, Gold, Silver, Euro, Yen, and T-Notes). The reason we like Bitcoin for traders is because 50+% moves seem to happen every couple of weeks. Also, we like it because it seems to have its favorite solar/lunar combinations for reversals. It is a great market for speculators and aggressive traders, who understand how to manage the risk (don’t trade more than your life style can afford to lose). We use the current nearby futures contract as the basis for our analysis, which can easily be used by those who want to actually own bitcoins (or its relatives, like Ethereum and Litecoin). For those who sign up this week, we will also provide a FREE COPY of our recent March 8 webinar for subscribers (“Q&A with Ray”), which includes the tables on our initial research results of daily bitcoin reversals of 10% or more related to lunar movements since July 2014. The initial results are impressive! Read more and order here now!>>
	NOTE 3: The next MMA Financial Markets Webinar will be a 2nd quarter update on markets and other topics. It will take place on Saturday, April 28, at noon, MST (3 PM EDT). Cost is $45 / € 37,50*. Read more>>
	NOTE 4: MMA Cycles Report! went out last week to all subscribers. This report covered the outlook for U.S. stock indices (DJIA and S&P futures), Gold, Silver, Treasuries, Euro Currency, Crude Oil and Soybeans, plus MMA’s original geocosmic critical reversal dates (CRDs) and Solar/Lunar reversal dates over the next several weeks. The Cycles Report Dutch edition, containing AEX analysis came out March 22. The monthly MMA Japan Cycles report also came out lastweek, and covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen. The MMA European Cycles Report was released last week too, covering the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX. If you are not a subscriber to the MMA Cycles Reports and wish a copy of this month’s outlook for financial markets, plus a FREE COPY of the March 8 webinar for subscribers (it was excellent), consider taking out a subscription now>>
	NOTE 5: Beginning April 24, we will begin to offer a new MMA Canadian Markets weekly report, and an MMA Indian Stock Market weekly report, by MMTA graduate Nitin Bhandari. The MMA Canada Weekly Cycles Report will provide analysis on the Canadian Dollar (versus US) and the TSE (Toronto Stock Exchange). The MMA Indian Weekly Stock Market Report will analyze the Indian Nifty stock index. If you are interested in these markets and would like a 2-issue (2-week) free trial before starting a paid subscription, let us know.

Disclaimer & State of Purpose

The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the Schogt Market Timing & MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author's understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come.

The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle's analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.