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Market Preview for the week beginning January 31, 2022
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Market Preview for the week beginning January 31, 2022

Market Preview for the week beginning January 31, 2022

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The nation’s gross domestic product expanded 5.7% in 2021. It was the strongest calendar-year growth since a 7.2% surge in 1984 after a previous recession. In a statement, President Joe Biden said, “We are finally building an American economy for the 21st century, with the fastest economic growth in nearly four decades, along with the greatest year of job growth in American history.” Paul Wiseman, “Economy’s Growth Fastest Since 1984,” Associated Press, January 28, 2022

The global economy will expand a predicted 4.4% this year, the IMF said Tuesday in its World Economic Outlook. That figure is down from an estimated 5.9% in 2021. The decline will be steeper in the U.S., 4% in the coming year, a 1.2% downgrade from its October estimate – the largest downgrade for any major country for which the IMF provides forecasts. – Josh Zumbrun, “IMF Downgrades 2022 Growth Forecast,” Wall Street Journal, January 26, 2022.

It was another wild and volatile week, just like Mercury retrograde, the Trickster, is known for, and especially following Uranus’ change of direction on January 18. Mercury retrograde is akin to someone scratching their head and wondering “What’s going on? This doesn’t make sense.” Uranus is its higher octave, and when it is highlighted it is more like “pulling one’s hair out.” Together they can equate to a feeling of insanity, instability, and chaos, as if the whole world has gone mad and lost all control.

Does this make sense that a GDP report of the greatest economic growth in 40 years coincides with the steepest decline in world stock indices since the Pandemic Panic of March 2020? Well, actually it does when you consider 1) the change in Fed policy, 2) the highest rate of inflation in over 40 years, 3) record cases of the Omicron variant causing people to stay home from work, and 4) the escalating Russian threat of military confrontation over Ukraine.

stock markets were chaotic last week, with many suffering their greatest losses in nearly two years, which is right in line with our analysis given in Forecast 2022. This year’s Forecast Book was written in October-November 2021 but applies to what is happening right now. In other words, a decline of this amplitude was unexpected at the time the book was written as so many world indices were making new all-time highs then. But it was very expected per our studies of long-term market and planetary cycles as written. How bad has this been? How good of an investment opportunity is possibly unfolding now? Our call was for the steepest decline since March 2020, with an estimate of 10-20% losses in early 2022.

In Asia and the Pacific Rim, Japan’s Nikkei has been hit the hardest. From a 31-year high of 30,795 on September 14, 2021, it is plunged 15.4% into last week’s low of 26,044. That was its lowest mark since November 2020. Australia’s ASX has fallen 11.5% from its all-time high of January 5, 2022 to last week’s low. China’s Shanghai Composite has lost 9.5% from a high of 3708 on December 13 to Friday’s low of 3356. India’s Nifty has lost 8.5% of its value in just one week. Only the Hang Seng of Hong Kong has been holding its own with little change as of late.

In Europe, the Netherlands AEX has now plummeted 11.5% from its all-time high on November 18, 2021, to last week’s low. Switzerland SMI has lost 8.7% off its all-time high on January 3. Germany’s DAX was similar, with a decline of 8.2% from its all-time high on November 18. But the London FTSE hardly suffered at all, down only 4.3% between its post-crash high on January 20 to its low of January 24.

The equity markets of the Americas were also bizarre. In the U.S., all major indices took a hard hit, with the low at last Monday’s Mercury retrograde midpoint (January 24), The DJIA was down a 10.3% from its all-time high of only three weeks earlier. Its previous steepest loss since March 23, 2020, was 10.4%. The NASDAQ Composite was hammered even more, down 19.2% from its all-time high of November 22. The S&P 500 lost 12.36% between its all-time high of January 4 and last week’s low on January 24. But in Brazil, it was an entirely different story. The Bovespa has actually rallied 13% from its multi-year low on November 20 to its high on January 27. What makes Brazil so attractive when everything else has turned to poison? Perhaps the poison suddenly left the system on Friday afternoon as the DJIA made a 900+ reversal up from its low of the day and closed 564 points higher on the day.

Other markets also behaved out of synch with one another, typical of Mercury and Venus retrograde with Uranus changing directions. Crude Oil soared to a new 7-year high on Friday, nearing 90.00. Grains are coming back strong too. But these rallies are happening simultaneously to strength in the U.S. Dollar and weakness in the other currencies. This is not normal. The Dollar Index reached 97.44 on Friday, its highest level since July 2020. The Euro, on the other hand, fell to its lowest level since May 2020. Although Gold made a new cycle high of 1854 on Tuesday, January 25, it turned sharply lower into Friday. And Silver fell to 22.15 on Friday, down over 10% since reaching 24.75 just one week ago. Some commodities fell against the rising Dollar while others rose with it. That’s not the way it is supposed to work. But then again, nothing seldom works the way it is supposed to work when Mercury and Venus are both retrograde and Uranus changes its direction.

In other markets, Bitcoin fell to a low of 32,950 to start the week, down 52.75% from its all-time high of November 10 and is now testing its yearly lows from last summer. Like the U.S. stock market, Bitcoin found some support on Friday, yet it is still struggling to get back to 40,000. A special report on Bitcoin’s long-term cycles was released last week to all subscribers of the Bitcoin Report, as well as Daily and Weekly subscription reports, outlining our view on where it stands and projects for 2022.

Most of this market drama has taken place since Mercury turned retrograde on January 14 and Uranus turned direct on January 18. Typical of those two mind-benders, world financial markets have exhibited chaos. Maybe it ends here with Venus turning direct and the Sun making its translation to the Saturn/Uranus square January 29-February 4 (it squares Uranus January 30 and conjoins the Sun on February 4 as Mercury also turns direct. Astrologically, there is reason to think this might be so.

 

 

Short-term Geocosmics and Longer-term Thoughts 

The Federal Reserve statement signaled a March rate increase, and a reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet later on. This is not a surprise. The March rate rise will allow the Fed to take credit where credit is not due, and smugly point to its policy tightening when inflation drops in the second quarter. Dr. Paul Donovan, “Credit Where Credit is Not Due,” UBS Morning Comment, January 27, 2022.

Historically, the US has had two Uranus Returns, and both brought military splits. The first one took place in 1861 just at the beginning of the Civil War. The second one, 84 years later, corresponded to World War II, and the splitting of the world into Allied and Axis powers. 84 years later brings us to the US’s third Uranus Return over the next few years. The division between “us” and “them” is already apparent every time you read or watch the news. – Michael O’Reilly, “Mental Health and the US Uranus Return,” Newscope, https://www.neptunecafe.com/, January 17, 2022.

 

Instant Karma's gonna get you, Gonna look you right in the face. Better get yourself together darlin,' Join the human race.
Well, we all shine on. Like the moon and the stars and the sun. Well, we all shine on…Ev'ryone come on.”

– John Lennon, “Instant Karma (We All Shine On),” Apple, 1970

The Fed did not walk back its intent to raise rates sooner rather than later to fight inflation, despite both Mercury and Venus being retrograde. The consequence of sticking with the hawkish rhetoric is that the stock market (and other markets) continued their steepest sell off since March 2020 into early last week.

However, Venus ends its retrograde motion this weekend, and the Trickster does the same with his retrograde cycle next weekend. With Venus turning direct, stock markets often complete primary cycle highs or lows within 12 trading days. It is a wide time band, and we are in it right now. With Friday’s rally, as opposed to the usual pattern of a late session sell off, there is a reason for hope.

I think Dr. Donavan’s quote above has merit in the study of geocosmic cycles. As described in the Forecast 2022 eBook, interest rates and inflation are expected to rise while Jupiter is in Pisces (December 29, 2021-May 10, 2022). But then it moves into Aries until October 27-28, forming a T-square to the Fed’s Sun/Pluto opposition. This implies reversing back to a more accommodative and easing policy. For the last two months of the year, Jupiter will move back into Pisces, which implies the easy-money game again leads to inflationary numbers, followed again by easing policies into the first half of 2023.

We may not really get inflation down much until Jupiter gets into the earth sign of Taurus in mid-2023. But what concerns me more after that is the possibility of deflation as Saturn approaches Neptune on February 20, 2026. That’s just in time for Uranus’ entrance into Gemini, a remarkable mundane correlation to another possible division between “us” and “them “ as observed by the studies of astrologer Michael O’Reilly cited above. It also is very close to the passage of the Lunar North Node into Aquarius and Capricorn, 2026-2029, a consistent correlation to economic recessions throughout history.

The wonderful thing about all cycles is very simple: if you know their pattern, you can apply the behaviors necessary to prevent the repetition of their conflicts or maximize the repetition of their triumphs in human activity. With the transit of Uranus in Gemini also making a trine aspect to Pluto in Aquarius (Uranus’s sign of rulership), we have an opportunity for another renaissance. Since invention (Uranus) is the mother of necessity, perhaps a recession is necessary to push the creative forces of human ingenuity that leads humanity into this renaissance. Usually, the renaissance is also a revolution in communications (perfect for Uranus in Gemini), according to the great Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff.

The revolution in thought that I am hoping for is a realization of the value of “diversity within unity,” a difference from today’s mantra, which seems to be “unity in diversity,” which strikes me as synonymous with division and divisiveness. Uranus can go either way here: a belief that we are all a part of separate groups and group identities that see each other as either friend or foe (“us” versus “them”), or as my friend Seth Adamson (CEO of One Humanity Foundation and Worldwide Coalition for Peace) writes, a realization that we are all connected because we are all part of the greater human race. This is the real and perhaps the only basis for our unity, and a platform upon which real peace is possible. vOh no! I am sounding like Uranus in Gemini trine Pluto in Aquarius already. Next thing you know I will be transformed from a potato to a unicorn. But it would be nice if Ukrainians and Russians could lay down their swords, both be safe and at peace, and from there, a model to all of humanity. It’s all about choices and their consequences, otherwise known as karma.

 

 

Announcements 

The January MMA Monthly Cycles Report Plus+ was released last week

The mid-month addendum to the MMA Cycles report is only available for subscription to those who also subscribe to the MMA Monthly Cycles Report. If you wish to try this month’s addendum, along with the January issue of the MMA Monthly Cycles Report, sign up online and select the subscription option: One month (January) Issue One Time Payment + Addendum for only $55. That will give you both the most recent copy of the MMA Cycles report and its addendum. If you want only the MMA Monthly Cycles Report, the January report is available now for $35/€32.***

FORECAST 2022 SPECIAL OFFERS for subscribers

 

Forecast 2022

The annual Forecast 2022 eBook is available for $55.00 / € 49 (no shipping costs).

For those interested in the Netherlands' stock market, the 2022 stock market outlook for the Netherlands' AEX index, is now abailable online, in Dutch language, written by MMA analyst Irma Schogt. Those who bought the Forecast 2022 Ebook with us, may use the coupon code ForAEX2022 to receive a 50% discount on this market report.

Other non American market reports for 2022, English language, include: Japan’s Nikkei, China’s Shanghai Composite, and the German DAX plus Zurich SMI indices. Each is available in PDF format at $35.00/€33* each. Each is about 9-10 pages, with their monthly charts as of November 2021, and a list of their critical reversal dates for 2022.

 

 

 

Monthly videos

 


Starting on Saturday, Februray 5, SMT will begin offering a monthly 10-15 minute YouTube video on the geocosmic climate related to financial markets. This video will review the market activity of the past week, and offer a preview of the geocosmic signatures in effect for the next week and beyond. The host will be MMTA Education Director and market analyst Gianni di Poce. Ray Merriman will also present on the first episode, and the one nearby to every new moon (monthly) after that. Like this free weekly column, there will be no cost. Stay tuned for further information on this exciting new feature! 

 

 

MMA adds DAILY ANALYSIS ON ETHEREUM in the MMA Daily Report AND the MMA Daily Bitcoin Report

MMA WILL ADD DAILY ANALYSIS ON ETHEREUM in the MMA Daily and MMA Daily Bitcoin Report, from Feb 4

The Ethereum daily analysis will be written by MMTA director, Gianni Di Poce. Ray Merriman will continue to do the analysis on all other markets of this report, including Bitcoin. Of all market analysts I know who follow Bitcoin and Ethereum, Gianni is one of the very few I am aware of who correctly called this downturn in both cryptos and the steepness of the decline well ahead of time. Several weeks ago, he gave an analysis on why Bitcoin and Ethereum may be starting a plunge to their 4-year cycle lows. For more information on subscribing to the Bitcoin/Ethereum separately or MMA Daily markets report (which will include both Bitcoin and Ethereum), visit MMA Daily Market Comments and Trade Recommendations>> and MMA Daily Bitcoin Report>>.

 

 

Disclaimer & State of Purpose

The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the Schogt Market Timing & MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. 

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author's understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. 

The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle's analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.