Market Preview for the week beginning April 9, 2018

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Nonfarm payrolls rose by 103,000 in March, well below economist expectations of 193,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, February's number was revised higher and the longer-term trend of strong growth looked intact. - Jeff Cox, “Nonfarm Payrolls Increase by 103,000 in March, vs 193,000 Jobs Expected,” www.cnbc.com, April 6, 2018.

The trade dispute itself cannot really be called a "trade war." A trade war implies falling trade volumes. US President Trump's economic policies are calculated to increase the size of the US current account deficit, and so increase trade volumes. (US living standards will also increase if the deficit increases, coincidentally). – Paul Donovan, “The Media Headline War,” Paul Donovan, www.ubs.com/pauldonovan.

President Donald Trump threatened a major escalation in trade tensions with Beijing on Thursday, saying he was considering imposing tariffs on an additional $100 billion in imports from China. The president said that an escalation would be due to Beijing’s “unfair retaliation,” which could “harm our farmers and manufacturers.” – Bob Davis, “Trump Eyes $100 Billion in Added Tariffs,” Wall Street Journal, April 6, 2018.

In the week that was the middle of this current Mercury retrograde (March 22-April 14), many stock indices of the world ended rallies that began around the time Mercury turned retrograde. To say traders and investors alike are confused by the mixed messages of the president and his men – many of whom have no idea of his sudden announcements of new policies, or changes to existing policies until after he tweets his rapidly changing positions – would be an understatement. Yet it is completely in form with Mercury the Trickster, who goes first this way, and then that way, depending on who or what is standing in his path. Of course, Mercury is especially important to people who have Gemini prominent, such as Mr. Trump, who is not only born under a Gemini sun sign, but finds his Sun conjunct Uranus, the planet that is more unpredictable and changeable than Mercury. Some say that is a signature of brilliance, innovation, and intelligence that is off the charts. Others say it is a sign of someone constantly on the verge of cracking up. The truth is not somewhere in the middle here, but on the edge, the fringe, of both sides - both levels - of the parallel universes that this mind defines as reality. There is no norm here. It’s either brilliance or crazy, or both, alternating with different points in time.

Worries about President Donald Trump’s trade policies and threats of imposing tariffs on imports, especially from China, continue to be a drag on global equity markets, despite the attempt to rally since the lows of March 26 (one day prior to our March 27 two-star geocosmic CRD - critical reversal date). All the president’s advisors continue to say it is just a negotiating tool. However, as former Fed Governor Alan Binder stated recently, and quoted in this column, “Trade wars have a way of intensifying…That is exactly how trade wars escalate.” (Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2018).

In Europe, the London FTSE rallied to 7214 on Friday, April 6, after making a 16-month low at 6861 on March 26. However, like other indices, it closed down on Friday after the rally, after the Trump threat to implement more new tariffs on China. The story was the same in the German DAX, Zurich SMI, and Netherlands AEX. All rallied smartly from their lows in our March 26 CRD reversal zone, topping out late last week, and then closing down on Friday.

In Asia and the Pacific Rim, smart rallies were present in India’s Nifty and Japan’s Nikkei Index. However, it was not so exuberant in China, Hong Kong, or Australia, where the prospect of a trade war between China and the USA does not bode well at all.

Trade fears also brought down the USA stock markets early in the week, as the DJIA fell temporarily below its low of February 9. This was not case in the NASDAQ Composite and S&P however, and immediately after that low, all three indices started to soar – until Friday, when Trump’s announcement of more possible tariffs on the Chinese launched, following their retaliation of the first Trump tariff threat a few days ago. It was another Trump buzzkill, as the DJIA promptly lost 572 points on Friday, after rising over 1000 points from low to high the prior two days. This retaliation game between the two Gemini leaders (Xi and Trump) is all a part of their negotiating styles, but with Mercury retrograde and ruling their sun signs, things could go too far off course, making it hard to circle back around again to more normal negotiations. Yet, these two Geminis have favorable aspects to one another, and to Vladimir Putin, so don’t rule out the possibility of a happy ending for all concerned, except Kim Jong-un, who is likely to be odd man out, the one who is sacrificed, in this international deal-making theatre. For Trump, that may be what this is ultimately all about.

Short-Term Geocosmics and Longer-Term Thouhgts

(Jamie) Dimon worries about the huge pile of money ($9 trillion by his count) now invested in “passive” funds, such as index funds and ETF’s that track popular stock indexes. These funds, he notes, are very easy for investors to get out “It is reasonable to worry about what happens if these funds went into large liquidation,” Dimon said. – Adam, Shell, “Dimon: Trump’s Complaints About China are ‘Legitimate,’” USA Today, April 6, 2018.

When we look at trade issues via the study of Mundane Astrology, we focus upon Sagittarius (the 9th sign), the 9th house, and Jupiter, the ruler of Sagittarius. The #9 principle applies to all matters related to foreign countries and individuals, including immigration. The fact that the USA is experiencing such difficulties in these areas is no surprise to a Mundane Astrologer, for transiting Saturn (the planet of struggles, resistance, and blockages) is now in opposition to the USA natal Jupiter at 5° Cancer, in its natal 9th house (if using the July 2, 1776 chart, 11;50 AM, Philadelphia, PA). Since Saturn will soon turn retrograde at 9° Capricorn, it will return twice more in opposition to the USA natal Jupiter through November 2018. Trade and immigration are likely to be major issues in the midterm election, which will be held November 6, 2018. Saturn’s transit during this period will also create a T-square to Donald Trump’s natal Mercury/Neptune square, which points out the challenge for him personally on this “trade war” negotiating ploy. Nothing ever seems to go the way you want it to go when transiting Saturn is involved in a hard aspect formation like this. At best, he might get his way, but not quickly. And with natal Mars in Leo on his natal ascendant, he is not one to employ patience as virtue. If he doesn’t get the results he wants quickly, he often becomes Martian – he gets angry, or moves on to create or focus upon another crisis. A mundane astrologer may become very concerned in June and July when Mars turns retrograde this summer, in opposition to Trump’s natal Pluto,

Shorter-term, we are focused on the transits unfolding April 7-18. These include the new moon in Aries on April 15, the same day that Mercury turns direct, and one day before heliocentric Mercury enters Sagittarius (April 16-27). The next two days will also find Saturn turning retrograde and the Sun conjunct Uranus for the last time in Aries. We would like to think that things will cool down, become more calm and mature, now that Mercury is about to end its retrograde trickery, but these transits suggest that will not be the case just yet. In fact, matters may not slow down and rhetoric may not return to a semblance of respect, until the mid-term elections are over, because Mars will enter a central time band that involves three passages in a square aspect to Uranus, due to the retrograde of Mars. This Mars/Uranus climate of chaos may extend from May 16 through September 18.

There is some hope for peace and relaxation too this summer, for Jupiter will complete its final two passages of a trine to Neptune on May 25 and August 19. It is a very strange spring and summer season, with cross currents between the psychotic chaos of Mars square Uranus, and the peaceful, gentle nature of Jupiter trine Neptune. I suspect stock markets will reflect these contradictory dynamics in kind, with a major cycle trough first, followed by another powerful rally into late summer, early fall – and then the show may be over.

Announcements

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Disclaimer & State of Purpose

The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the Schogt Market Timing & MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author's understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come.

The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle's analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.